5
its compliance with the Act, and all queries associated with this GN should be
directed to the Authority.
13. The Authority’s guidance is of general application and seeks to take account of the
wide diversity of institutions that may be licensed under the Act. There may be a
need for revision of this Guidance Note from time to time. Material changes in the
Guidance will be published, generally through the issue of revised versions.
III. Interpretation
14. Best Estimate A probability-weighted average of future cash flows, discounted using
the relevant adjusted risk-free interest rate term structure. By definition, EBS best
estimates allow for discounting of future cash flows, and reflect the full potential
range of possible outcomes. Traditional insurance valuation methodologies may not
be capable of adequately allowing for all possible scenarios; however, for EBS best
estimate valuations, it is expected that due regard be paid to events that may not be
adequately reflected in the data used for such traditional approaches. These events
have been referred to as ‘Binary Events’ or ‘ENIDs’ (Events Not In Data set). A “best
estimate” may or may not be the result of the use of a probability distribution or a
statistical analysis, and, in the Actuary’s professional judgement, is neither optimistic
nor pessimistic.
15. Reasonable In the context of an Actuary opining on Line 19 and/or Line 27C of the
Statutory Economic Balance Sheet
1
, “reasonable” means that, considering the nature,
scale and complexity of the insurer’s business and the requirements and standards of
the Act, the TPs held are deemed by the Actuary to fall within a range of best
estimate provisions that would be arrived at by two or more actuaries possessing the
appropriate integrity, competency, resources, qualifications and experience, and
where the subject actuaries exercised the level of care and diligence that, in the
Actuary’s professional judgment, would be necessary to complete the assignment in
an appropriate manner.
2
16. Adverse Deviation (General Business – Only) The potential variation in the actual
amount that will be needed to pay future obligations gives rise to uncertainty in the
estimates of TPs. In the context of this GN, an adverse deviation occurs when such a
1
The Statutory Economic Balance Sheet is found in Schedule XIV of the Prudential Standards Rules for
the relevant class of insurer
2
Actuarial Standards Board (ASB) – http://www.actuarialstandardsboard.org/glossary/reasonable/ - “In
many instances, the ASOPs call for the actuary to … produce a “reasonable” result when rendering
actuarial services. The intent is to call upon the actuary to exercise the level of care and diligence that, in
the actuary’s professional judgment, is necessary to complete the assignment in an appropriate manner.
Because actuarial practice commonly involves the estimation of uncertain events, there will often be a
range of reasonable methods and assumptions, and two actuaries could follow a particular ASOP, both
using reasonable methods and assumptions, and reach different but reasonable results. (ASOP No. 1)”